Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Egypt's Lessons for Ethiopia

Anonymous  
The current political crisis in Egypt holds important lessons for Ethiopians. It is often said that democracy is not just about elections. Democracy means that people have to agree to live together and by certain rules, as described in a constitution, for example. In order to come to such agreement, people need to be able to negotiate, compromise, and find win-win solutions. That is why it is often also said that democracy, more than rules and institutions, is a mindset. In the absence of a democratic mindset and a negotiated agreement on the basis of the nation, there will always be conflict, as we see in Egypt.
When President Hosni Mubarak's dictatorial regime was overthrown by the people of Egypt in 2011, it was seen by many as a great step towards democracy in Egypt. A vast majority of Egyptians were never happy being ruled by force and wanted the freedom and justice that dictatorships deny. But for decades, they were unable to put aside their various differences and work together in order to remove thedictatorship. Finally, in 2011, cooperation and unity emerged. Large numbers of people from all sectors of society, including all religions, political parties, and even people from within government, realized democracy was in their common interest, and so they worked together to remove Mubarak. The lesson of this episode for Ethiopia is that one party or one group cannot overturn dictatorship - it takes a grand coalition. Various groups and parties must first understand, that freedom, justice, and democracy is in their common interest, and then put aside their differences in order work together.
Though they could agree on removing Mubarek, the disparate groups in Egypt could not agree on what the future of Egypt - that is, the constitution - should look like. So they ended up having an election before a new constitution. In retrospect, that was a mistake, because after the election, using its slim majority, the Moslem Brotherhood put into law a new constitution that all the opposition parties were vehemently against. Why was this a problem - after all, the Muslim Brotherhood won the election? Was it not their right to create a constitution to their liking? Well, as I said above, democracy is much more than elections. Consider the following simplified scenario - let us say there is a country whose population is 90% Muslim and 10% Christian. Elections are held, the people happen to vote based on religion, and an 'Islamist' party wins. Then the winning party passes a law that all Christians must convert to Islam. Will the Christians obey that law because it was passed by the majority? Not likely, and furthermore, they will struggle against the law - a struggle which will lead to persecution and violence. The only way to prevent this would be to have in the constitution basic rights such as freedom of religion, so that no government can pass such a law - so that there can be no 'tyranny of the majority'. The other two choices are 'tyranny' - to violently force the Christians to convert or to have them live in a separate country. The point being that a majority by itself cannot write a constitution. A constitution must fairly consider the interests of everyone in the nation, including those not in the majority. Of course, numbers do matter, and perhaps in the case of the above hypothetical country, given the very large Muslim majority, the constitution may be strongly biased towards their wants. For example, it may contain, like the current Egyptian constitution does, a clause that states that the "principles of Islamic Sharia" are the basis of legislation. But if the ratio of Muslim to Christian were 60/40 instead of 90/10, then one can imagine that there would be no such clause. This simplified illustration is to show that a constitution must be carefully crafted to respect the rights and interests of a very large proportion of the population. As is often said, drafting a constitution is an art. It takes careful examination of all the different constituencies and interests in the country and then carefully balancing these interests so that no citizens or groups feel strongly that they are left out and that they are not equal partners in the country. If a significant number of citizens or groups feel left out, the result will be political and social conflict in the future. In the Egyptian example, opposition parties felt completely left out, and that was a major reason for the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi. Of course, no constitution will fully satisfy everyone, but no one should feel completely alienated either. The lesson here for Ethiopia is that if the constitution, the rules by which citizens agree to live together, is not agreed upon or if it alienates major portions of the population, conflict is bound to arise. But knowing all this, why did the Moslem Brotherhood and the other Egyptian political parties not manage to agree on a constitution? The simple answer is that they were not prepared to negotiate and make the necessary compromises. Yes, it is really that simple. Compromise and negotiation is something all of us do an a daily basis in order to live and work with others. For example, take a young adult who lives with roommates. These roommates have different interests and habits, so they have to negotiate everyday to balance these. They may even create some 'house rules' about cleaning, maintenance, use of facilities, noise, etc. These house rules - their constitution - have to be jointly created agreed upon. If even one person does not agree with them, then either he has to move out, or he will violate the rules and create a disturbance. So the rules have to be negotiated. In order for the negotiation to be successful, there has to be trust. No one will negotiate with someone they believe cannot be trusted. What's the use - that person will not respect the rules anyway! Furthermore, once the rules are agreed upon and in place, they will need interpretation and once in a while, they may need revision. This requires trust and good faith, without which even the best set of rules is not enough to guarantee peace! In the case of Egypt, there is strong distrust between various political factions, especially between 'secularists' of various kinds and 'Islamists', especially the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite this, the Brotherhood thought that they could get away with establishing a constitution that the opposition was so strongly against. Note that in the constitutional referendum, which the opposition boycotted, 63.8% of the people approved the constitution. But a strong minority of Egyptians who distrust and are very frightened of the Brotherhood remained opposed and got together and overthrew the government. The Muslim Brotherhood had made a grave miscalculation. In retrospect, clearly the Brotherhood should have been much more careful. They were the most powerful individual party in Egypt, and they were expected to grow and become more powerful since they were no longer being repressed. At the same time, they were and are the most feared party in Egypt, because of their size and strength and potential to grow, and because of their perceived ideology. In their position, they should have been more conciliatory and inclusive, and compromised perhaps even more than required. They should have followed the model of Turkey's AKP party. With patience, it was likely that over several years, they would have gained in power and popularity. But they could not see past the short term. They could not see past their fear and distrust of the previous regime, the military and security establishment, the industrialists, and other opposing factions. They thought they had to move quickly to consolidate power, and in the end they moved too quickly and frightened too many. Of course, the opposition, too, should have negotiated better. It knew the challenge of the Muslim Brotherhood from the beginning, but did not deal with it. They too engaged in confrontation rather than dialogue. A major reason is that the opposition itself was too fragmented to engage the Brotherhood. Not being able to negotiate and compromise amongst themselves, it was difficult for them to do so with the Brotherhood. The lesson for Ethiopians here is simple, but fundamental. Let alone for large groups of people, even for individuals to live or work together, compromise and trust are necessary conditions. So, as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood and other parties' inability to work together, the military has again ascended into power in Egypt, re-assuming the role it has played in Egypt for the past fifty years. What is this role? To rule Egypt by force, playing different political factions against each other, religions against each other, taking advantage of the divisions inherent in Egyptian society. In its defence, the military will argue that without its dictatorship, there will be conflict between the various factions in Egypt since they do not have the ability to negotiate a peaceful future. They do not have the ability to work together. Recent evidence proves their point. But does this not remind you of the political situation in Ethiopia? One of the mantras of the EPRDF is that it is the sole guarantor of peace and stability in Ethiopia. It claims that without it, there would be conflict between Ethiopian nationalists and ethnic nationalists, between moderate and hardline ethnic nationalists, between Muslims and Christians, between political parties with the same ideologies, between economic classes, etc. The EPRDF plays to the fears and weaknesses of Ethiopians. It cozies up to nationalists and suggests to them that without the EPRDF, hardline ethnic nationalists such as the OLF will cause chaos. Then it goes to ethnic nationalists and tells them that without the EPRDF, there will be a return to 'Amhara hegemony'. It tells Muslims that all the new mosques that have been built during its rule would not have been possible with another 'Christian government'. Then, it goes to Christians and tells them that it is the only party capable of protecting them against impending Islamic fundamentalism. It tells Protestant Christians that it is on their side! It tells farmers that it has always protected their rights and that the opposition are urbanites bent on taking their land. And so on. The point is that the EPRDF plays to existing fears and weaknesses - it has not created these messages of fear out of thin air.

The role of the president under EPRDF

By Seyoum Workneh  
As we all know, EPRDF follows the policy of ethnic federalism, which will have dire consequences for the country in the future. Ethnic federalism is a symbolic division of power based on race. Presidential position has been assigned for the Oromo ethnic group as we have seen it for the last 23 years.
Now Ethiopia is having a new president in Dr Mulatu Teshome, who was born in 1955/56 in Arjo town, Wollega. There is no need of competency to take power in EPRDF era. The only thing the elect has to do is to serve loyally for the TPLF members. Even though EPRDF believes that power is divided fairly among all four ethnic-based parties that make up the EPRDF, the presidential position is nothing more than presenting flower bouquets to foreign dignitaries that come to the country. The job of presenting flowers is in accordance with EPRDF constitution's Article 71.The president does not have influence in the politics of the country. So, I don't think he will work hard for change even in his piety power rather than being puppet for the next 6 years and 6 more years(unless political change engulfs Ethiopia or natural disasters come to his house) like his predecessors. I am afraid that Dr Mulatu has become a volunteer to serve the Weyanna gangsters, despite his scholarship and hailing from the majority Oromo
For a better understanding, here's what a president does under the surveillance of the EPRDF bosses: Article 71
Powers and Functions of the President
  1. He shall open the joint session of the House of Peoples’ Representatives and the House of the Federation at the commencement of their annual sessions.
  2. He shall proclaim in the Negarit Gazeta laws and international agreements approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives in accordance with the Constitution.
  3. He shall, upon recommendation by the Prime Minister, appoint ambassadors and other envoys to represent the country abroad.
  4. He shall receive the credentials of foreign ambassadors and special envoys.
  5. He shall award medals, prizes and gifts in accordance with conditions and procedures established by law.
  6. He shall, upon recommendation by the Prime Minister and in accordance with law, grant high military titles.
  7. He shall, in accordance with conditions and procedures established by law, grant pardon.

Trial in Denver will spotlight terror in Ethiopia

By Tom McGhee, Denver Post  
The prosecutor in the trial of an Ethiopian accused of taking part in torture and murder during political upheaval in the African nation told jurors Monday that they will hear from some of those who witnessed his blood-thirsty reign at a prison there.

Kefelgn Alemu Worku is charged with coming into the United States illegally. Among the false statements he is accused of making in applying for naturalization is the answer "no" he gave to this question: "Have you ever persecuted (either directly or indirectly) any person because of race, religion, national origin ... or political opinion?" Assistant U.S. Attorney Brenda Taylor said.
The stories of those who survived their time at "Higher 15," the prison in Addis Ababa where he was a guard, will show that he lied, Taylor told jurors on Monday, the first day of Alemu Worku's trial in U.S. District Court in Denver.
Matthew Golla, the defense attorney for Alemu Worku, also known as John Doe, said he doesn't doubt that "wicked" things were done in the Ethiopian prison during the late 1970s, a period known as the Red Terror.
"The facts will show that this man had no part in that," Golla, an assistant federal defender, told jurors. "I think the evidence will show their identifications are suspect."
One witness will be Samuel Habteab Berhe, who immigrated from East Africa in 1995, Taylor said. When war broke out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Habteab Berhe arranged for his father, who was Eritrean, and four younger siblings to go to Kenya. "But there was a problem," Taylor said.
His father was ill — mentally and physically — and it was his status as an Eritrean that would make it possible for the family to immigrate to the United States, Taylor said. Habteab Berhe's brothers and sisters met Alemu Worku, whom they knew as "Tufa," and enlisted him to act as their father, Habteab Berhe Temanu, during the immigration process.
"His children made an impossible choice and sent their father back to Eritrea," Taylor said.
He died in 2005.
Read the full story on Denver Post

Africa Isn't Rising, Say Ordinary Africans

New American Media
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa —African leaders, foreign investors and formal indicators of economic growth may say that "Africa is rising" - but most ordinary Africans don't agree.

A pioneering new survey of public opinion in 34 countries across the continent suggests that the relatively high average growth in gross domestic product (GDP) reported in recent years is not reflected in the experiences of most citizens.

An average of one in five Africans still often goes without food, clean water or medical care. Only one in three think economic conditions in their country are good. Fifty-three percent say they are "fairly bad" or "very bad".

The survey suggests that either the benefits of growth are being disproportionately channelled to a wealthy elite or that official statistics are overstating average growth rates (or possibly a combination of both).

The survey was directed by Afrobarometer, a research project coordinated by independent institutions in Ghana, Benin, Kenya and South Africa, with partners in 31 other countries. Afrobarometer says the margin of error in its face-to-face public opinion surveys is around two percent. It has been surveying public opinion in 12 countries since 1999, but has grown to include 35 countries for the period 2011 to 2013.

The results of the latest survey - released in Johannesburg on Tuesday - are the first to reflect public opinion across such a wide swathe of the continent. Interviews for the survey were carried out between October 2011 and June this year.

Speaking at the release of the results, Boniface Dulani of the University of Malawi, the project's operational field manager, said they indicated that three-quarters of Africans thought their governments were doing badly in closing the gap between rich and poor. Nevertheless, most remained optimistic about the future - with west and north Africans more optimistic than east Africans, and southern Africans "somewhere in the middle".

A policy brief analysing the results said the data, "based on the views and experiences of ordinary citizens", shed light on the debate over whether growth is helping reduce poverty, "suggesting that doubts about the extent of progress achieved in the fight against poverty are well founded".

In the 16 countries surveyed over a period of a decade, there was little evidence for systematic reduction of the poverty experienced by ordinary citizens, despite average GDP growth rates of 4.8 percent, the brief added.

While "lived poverty" was reduced in Cape Verde, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, it increased in Botswana, Mali, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania.

Professsor Robert Mattes of the University of Cape Town, a co-director of the project, said the data suggested that the reduction in poverty in Zimbabwe was a consequence of the formation of a coalition government after the 2008 elections.

Respondents across all 34 countries were asked how often they had gone without basic necessities in the past year:

• 53 percent of the sample said they had sometimes gone without medical care, with 20 percent saying they had gone without many times;

• 50 percent said they had gone without food sometimes (17 percent many times);

• 49 percent had gone without water sometimes (21 percent many times);

• 41 percent had gone without cooking fuel sometimes (13 percent many times); and

• 76 percent said they had gone without cash income sometimes in the past year (44 percent many times).

Other findings of the survey:

• "People in Burundi, Guinea, Niger, Senegal and Togo experienced the highest average levels of lived poverty, while those living in Algeria and Mauritius experienced the lowest.

• "People living in countries undergoing or emerging from conflicts appear to be particularly vulnerable to lived poverty, especially food shortages. Five of the seven countries that experience the highest levels of nutritional deprivation - Burundi, Liberia, Madagascar, Sierra Leone and Niger - are all emerging from recent conflicts. And the two worst performers in North Africa - Egypt and Sudan - have recently faced internal conflicts as well.

• "Comparing regional experiences of lived poverty, we find that both West and East Africans encounter the most shortages, while North Africans experience the lowest levels of deprivation."

Afrobarometer also said that rural people tended to be poorer than citizens living in urban areas, and that those with access to electricity, water, paved roads, sewage systems and health clinics were usually better off than those without.

Countries included in the 2013 results are: Algeria, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Results from Ethiopia, the 35th country to be surveyed, are still being compiled.

The core partners coordinating the Afrobarometer are the Ghana Center for Democratic Development, the Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy in Benin, the Institute for Development Studies at the University of Nairobi, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in South Africa and the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University in the United States, backed by another 30 independent research institutes in universities and the private sector in each of the countries surveyed.

A look at Eritrea, an isolated African nation

By RODNEY MUHUMUZA, Associated Press
KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — Thousands of people each year flee Eritrea, a small Horn of Africa nation. Despite relative peace, many leave the repressive regime taking trips that can be as perilous as the recent boat disaster off the Italian island of Lampedusa.Here is a look at the  isolated country:
               INDEPENDENCE

 Eritrea declared independence in 1993 following a United Nations-backed referendum in which Eritreans voted to break away from Ethiopia. Eritrea's pro-independence leaders fought a guerrilla war against Ethiopia that ended in 1991. Relations between landlocked Ethiopia and Eritrea, which has a Red Sea coastline, have since remained tense, with both countries' armies occasionally clashing over an undefined common border. From May 1998 to June 2000, the neighbors fought a costly and bloody war over a disputed border territory. Both countries continue to accuse each other of supporting armed groups across the border.
POPULATION
Roughly the size of Pennsylvania, Eritrea has a population of at least 6 million people. About 69 percent of them are poor, the school enrollment rate stands at 47 percent and annual per capita income was $403 in 2010, according to the World Bank. The country has faced chronic drought over the years, fueled in part by the government's restrictive economic policies, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook. Nine ethnic groups are recognized in the country, including the dominant Tigrinya.
LEADERSHIP
Isaias Afworki, a former guerrilla fighter who became the leader of Eritrea's war of independence, has been president since 1993 after being the country's de facto leader since 1991. He is said to rule with a firm hand, brooking no opposition to his authority, according to rights groups that depict him as a tyrant. At least 10,000 political prisoners have been held by Afworki's administration over the last two decades, Amnesty International said in a report released earlier this year. "With no known exception, not a single political prisoner has ever been charged with a crime or tried, had access to a lawyer or been brought before a judge or a judicial officer to assess the legality and necessity of the detention," the rights group said in the May report.
In January more than 100 dissident soldiers were reported to storm the headquarters of the Ministry of Information in the capital, Asmara, where they read a statement on state TV urging constitutional rule and freedom for political prisoners. That incident was interpreted by some analysts as an attempted power grab that never succeeded, although details of it remain unclear. Elections have not been held in Eritrea since independence.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Rights groups, which often lack access to the country, have called Eritrea an oppressive state where the rights of civilians are frequently violated. Human Rights Watch, which once described Eritrea as "a giant prison," reports that "torture, arbitrary detention, and severe restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and religious freedom remain routine" in the country. The group says in its global report for 2013 that "political parties are not allowed" in Eritrea and there are "no institutional constraints on" Afworki. "Eritreans are routinely subject to imprisonment without explanation, trial, or any form of due process. Incarceration often lasts indefinitely," the report says.
Amnesty International says it has "received many reports of deaths in detention" from torture, appalling conditions or suicide. Citing the accounts from those who have fled, the group reports that conditions in Eritrea's detention facilities are abysmal, with prisoners "held in underground cells and shipping containers, subject to boiling and freezing temperatures."
WHY MANY FLEE
More than 1,500 Eritreans, including unaccompanied minors, flee the country monthly despite shoot-to-kill orders to border guards and immense dangers along escape routes, according to Human Rights Watch.
Eritreans face compulsory national military service that "keeps most young Eritreans in perpetual bondage," the rights group says, accusing the government of prolonging military service indefinitely despite a decree limiting it to 18 months.
People are "desperate to escape" a military in which conditions are said to be "dreadful," making conscription into the armed forces one of the main reasons young Eritreans flee, said Andrew Weir, deputy editor of a Britain-based publication called Africa Confidential. Eritrea is austere and highly repressive, according to Weir. A well-known route for some migrants from Africa is via the Red Sea and Sinai, where people fall victim to human trafficking, he said.
More than 250 migrants were killed in the Lampedusa boat disaster and most victims are believed to be from Eritrea and Somalia, another troubled Horn of Africa nation, according to the office of U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The large number of unaccompanied children among those fleeing Eritrea showed "the scale of despair they are facing" back home, said Sheila B. Keetharuth, the U.N. special rapporteur on Eritrea. "The alarming human rights situation in Eritrea is triggering a constant stream of refugees to neighboring countries and far beyond. People continue to flee despite the extreme dangers along escape routes," Keetharuth said in a statement released Monday.
Some Eritrean athletes have not returned home after competing in sports events abroad; some went missing at the London Olympics.
THE PRESS
Many journalists have been imprisoned in Eritrea while others have fled the country, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists, which says Eritrea and neighboring Ethiopia were Africa's "top jailers" of journalists in 2012. The watchdog group says since 2008 it has assisted 30 Eritrean journalists who now live in exile. Eritrean authorities have shut down all independent media outlets in a widespread government crackdown that started in Sept. 2001, it says.
ALLEGED TERROR LINKS
Eritrea has long been accused of fomenting violence in Somalia in part to keep its archrival Ethiopia, which shares a long border with Somalia, concerned about conditions there. Increasingly isolated, Eritrea is under sanctions imposed by the African Union and the U.N. In late 2011 the U.N. Security Council expanded an arms embargo against Afworki's regime. Earlier this year the Obama administration blacklisted Eritrea's intelligence chief and a senior military official for their alleged roles in providing financial and logistical support to the al-Qaida-linked Somali Islamic extremist group al-Shabab. Eritrea's government denies the charges.

Ethiopian underdogs ready for Nigeria

Nigeria were not a better team than us.
ADDIS ABABA, Oct 7, (AFP): In matching blue jerseys and red shorts, Ethiopia’s footballers confidently criss-cross their home pitch, launching the ball back and forth. The players press on under the blistering morning sun for over two hours. At this crucial stage in the 2014 World Cup Africa zone qualifiers, the team knows that every minute of training counts. “We have tried to prepare them physically as well as mentally in the first week and now we are doing our tactical work and we will continue in the coming few days to combine the two,” said Ethiopian ‘Waliya Antelopes’ coach Sewnet Bishaw, as his team waged a practice match behind him. Ethiopia are preparing to face Nigeria on Sunday in their toughest qualifying match yet. Though the odds are stacked against Ethiopia — Nigeria rank 36th in the world, according to international football governing body FIFA, while Ethiopia clocks in at 93 — the ‘Waliyas’ maintain an unflinching resolve to win. Having beaten 2010 World Cup hosts South Africa to land at the top of their group, it is the closest the Horn of Africa nation has come to reaching the finals.
Ethiopia know the next match will be far from easy. On top of their impressive global ranking, Nigeria have more international experience and boasts several players from top European leagues. But the ‘Waliyas’ refuse to let that spook them. Having played Nigeria last January at the Africa Cup of Nations, Ethiopia are familiar with the strength of Nigeria’s ‘Super Eagles’, who won the game 2-0 before moving on to win the lift the trophy in South Africa. “We are ready for this match, we are very ready. We learned a lesson from the mistakes we made last time,” said midfielder Menyahil Teshome. Coach Sewnet said despite Ethiopia’s defeat, the Nigerian squad is not a better team and the ‘Waliyas’ maintained their strength until the last 10 minutes of the game. “If you look seriously at that match, Nigeria were not a better team than us. Up to the (end) we were performing good. But in the last 10 minutes they used their experience, so they got two penalties,” he said. “I think we will have a better game in the coming match against Nigeria,” Sewnet said.
But he admits training has been set back by the absence of the team’s four professional players, including star striker Saladin Said, who are expected early this week. Ethiopia — a country better known for their renowned runners than their footballers — have amazed supporters by making it this far in the qualifiers. Menyahil said his team, regarded as underdogs among powerful African national football teams like Ghana and Ivory Coast, is bolstered by a strong sense of nationalism and a refusal to be intimidated. “Our strength is our team spirit,” he said, sweating after training at Addis Ababa’s national stadium, which is lined with posters of the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
“We have nothing to fear. Until now, we’ve been supported by our people,” added Menyahil, who was fielded illegally in a match against Botswana, costing the team three points. Though preventing Nigeria from scoring away goals is crucial if Ethiopia want to proceed, coach Sewnet said the team is focused on both defending and attacking, and is not prioritising one over the other. And while he insists he is focusing on winning each match individually, instead of pressuring his team to reach Brazil, he does not scoff at the idea of making it to the World Cup. “Why not? I don’t know Brazil, so I want to see it,” he joked. The return match is scheduled for Calabar in south-east Nigeria on November 16 and the aggregate winners qualify for the World Cup.