By Destaw Andargie (Dr.)
It will soon be twenty-two years since TPLF seized power in Ethiopia. Over these long and torturous years, TPLF faced no serious external challenge whatsoever. It has been in absolute command. Its rule has never come under threat. Even during its worst internal crisis back in 2001, the issue was all about which faction would emerge the winner. It was still all about TPLF- the sole star in the political theatre. Indeed, despite dubious and useless rumors about infighting within TPLF, all objective indications suggest that TPLF will continue to dictate the country for the foreseeable future. The demise of its longtime leader notwithstanding, TPLF is as assured of its hegemony as ever. After 22 years of absolute domination, many are only hoping (against hope) for TPLF to commit suicide. The extent to which people are moved by the deceptive rumors that TPLF is fracturing proves nothing but the prevailing level of defeatism.[1] After all these years and everything that has happened; all the talk from the opposition camp (as with citizens) is still about what the TPLF does and does not, as if action was the natural monopoly of the TPLF. After twenty-two years, we still continue to talk about how divisive and tyrannical TPLF is. Obviously, such defeatist talks neither make news nor change anything. Yet, we continue down that path either because blaming TPLF for everything (including our own weaknesses) has transformed into a sort of addiction or just because it makes us feel somewhat good about ourselves for it relieves us from asking ourselves tougher questions. We seem to enjoy blaming TPLF for everything, and never to ask ourselves.[2] And, of course, TPLF loves that, for talk is cheap and will never alter the status quo.
After twenty-two long years, we have no political group with any realistic chance of knocking TPLF down now or at any point in the foreseeable future. The grim reality is that it is not obvious if the opposition is in a better shape now than it was ten or twenty years ago or will be in a better shape after ten or twenty years. So much is the magnitude of the opposition’s failure. This is a truly remarkable achievement for TPLF-one that any dictatorship would dream of. What remains to ask is this: why has TPLF been so successful? If TPLF is such a tiny minority with deeply unpopular political agenda, how do we fathom its extraordinary success? Where are the overwhelming majority of Ethiopians-those who claim to hold a burning love and patriotism for their mother land? What attributes does TPLF possess that the opposition does not? These are simple but momentous questions anyone who really cares about Ethiopian politics must ask. In what follows, I will engage these questions and put forward my views. My views may sound harsh on the opposition, but I have long been convinced that TPLF may not be more responsible for our troubles than we are. TPLF is doing what it is supposed to do, while the same cannot be said about the opposition. Importantly, blaming TPLF has never solved, and will never solve anything. If we really care and want to see change in Ethiopian politics, it is an imperative for us to ask what we can do, for neither TPLF nor anybody else in the world will do the job for us. Why? Because change is fundamentally against their interest. Quite the contrary, TPLF and global powers will do everything they can to preserve the status quo. It is entirely up to those who crave change to bring about change; as it has always been the case throughout history. Now, let me turn to my first question: why has TPLF been so successful? And what lessons for the opposition?
Success is NOT given, it’s earned!
Unarguably, it is not the law of nature, a stroke of luck or mythical destiny that put TPLF at the helm. It is down to verifiable universal attributes of success that TPLF possesses (and the opposition sorely lacks). It is high time for the political opposition to come to terms with reality. The harsh reality is that TPLF has superior standing and vitality than probably any political group in Ethiopia. Whatever else TPLF leaders are, they have proven to have a clear political project; that they work around the clock and thus are masterly in executing their project; that they are apt in making their case; that they are highly organized, disciplined and tenacious (almost 40 years old, still as rock solid as ever); pragmatically confident; cunning and skillful (which unfortunately matter immensely in the game of real politics); and crucially, that they are unwaveringly committed to the cause they fought for! Whether their cause is good or bad is an entirely different question, but they have a cause and they fought and continue to fight for it. It would be an exercise in futility to try to find these attributes in the opposition camp.
1. Clarity of purpose
As secretive and sophisticated TPLF leaders are, they are also unabashed in declaring what they believe in (however obscene that may be), what they stand for, what they plan to do, and they do it; action being their other admirable quality. For anyone who cares, TPLF’s political agenda, strategy, tactics, and almost everything else, were known even before they came to the helm of power. That is why accusations that TPLF is deconstructionist, or hates this of that people, or is divisive, or is anti-free media, and the like become annoyingly boring-something that neither makes news nor solves anything. It makes no news because that is what they told us they would do from the very beginning. Look at the following statements:
The country will have to be a federation …We can no longer have Amhara domination…
EPRP…have become just another version of the Derg. They favour Amhara domination. We don’t think we can cooperate with them…We are often very unhappy with the Amhara chauvinist line we hear on…the Voice of America…It sometimes sounds more like the “Voice of the Amhara” than the Voice of America…
These are statements of the late Meles Zenawi, made in his conversation with Paul Heinz, the American intelligence officer back in 1990. They reveal how they were prepared to deal with what they call Amhara dominated Ethiopia. It reveals their apprehension of any media that they have no control over (hence the VOA) and of any political party whose birth they have not midwifed. TPLF has never concealed its deconstructionist political agenda. Its hegemonic strategy has never been disguised. When it masterminded the creation of the other ‘coalition’ members (so-called PDOs-), one after another, simply to give the appearance (at least to the outside world) of an ethnically balanced representation, it was obvious that they would not be equal partners. While the created can never claim equality with its creator, TPLF made it clear from the very beginning that there would be no room for rival political groups, and that its doors are completely shut against the idea of national reconciliation. Standing in 1990, you could tell almost everything they would do for the next twenty-
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